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With the three major operators starting commercial 5G networks and successively releasing 5G network tariff packages, the 5G trend in 2020 is undisputed.
Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said at the National Industry and Information Technology Work Conference: We must steadily promote the construction of 5G networks, deepen joint construction and sharing, and strive to achieve 5G network coverage in all prefecture-level cities across the country by the end of 2020. Domestic smartphone manufacturers have spent a “dismal” 2019, and 5G mobile phones will become a new engine of growth. The acceleration of 5G network construction in various parts of the country means that a new wave of 5G replacement is coming soon.
Not long ago, Masaichi Tosaka, CEO of Japanese ceramic capacitor manufacturer Taiyo Yuden, predicted in an interview that Huawei may sell 100 million 5G-enabled smartphones in China alone next year.
Lenovo Yu Chengdong said in the “2020 New Year Letter to All Employees of Huawei’s Consumer Business” that “in the past few years, the consumer business has continuously exceeded its annual business goals.” In 2020, with the maturity of 5G technology and the substantial coverage of 5G base stations To improve, Huawei is bound to continue to make efforts on 5G smartphones.
So can the small goal of 100 million units in 2020 be achieved? Tianhao conducted the analysis through three variables.
The first variable: the dividend of large-scale commercial use of 5G in 2020
From the beginning of June 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued 5G commercial licenses to the three major operators and China Radio and Television, and until November 2019, the three major operators officially released 5G packages, and my country began to enter the first year of 5G commercial use.
According to a public report by IPlytics, a patent data company, as of April 2019, Huawei had 1554 family 5G standard essential patents, ranking first in the world. Together, the four Chinese companies, including Huawei, ZTE, OPPO, and the China Academy of Telecommunications Science and Technology, own 36 percent of the world’s 5G standard patents. From 2G all the way to 5G, the rapid rise of China’s communication technology marks the arrival of the 5G era in which China plays the leading role.
When it comes to 5G, we must talk about the four important characteristics of 5G networks: high speed, ubiquitous network, low power consumption, and low latency.
The theoretical peak download speed of 5G network can reach 20Gb/s; for example, new technology applications in the medical field, cloud games, 4K/8K live/on-demand, VR/AR and other new technologies will usher in new development under the popularization of 5G network.
The revolution of 5G to 4G and the revolution of 4G to 3G are completely different things. The latter is just optimization, and the former is to reshape the whole. 5G is a revolutionary breakthrough, breaking many barriers and creating many seemingly impossible possibilities.
Taking the application of 5G technology in the medical field as an example, 5G intensive care unit, drone drug delivery service, online consultation… Through “5G + medical health”, it will help to gradually change people’s medical habits and reduce the number of patients. Running errands and seeing a doctor is more convenient and a better medical experience. 5G technology is not only reflected in the improvement of speed, but also greatly improves the capacity and efficiency of information transmission. In the process of remote diagnosis and treatment, it can realize expert-level examination and evaluation of patients as if they were face-to-face, and conduct real-time dynamic monitoring of physiological indicators of patients. Timely early warning of abnormal events, but this is only a small part of the application of 5G in the medical field.
It can be seen that the 5G network will definitely make a big difference in 2020 and for a longer period of time in the future.
On December 23, 2019, it was proposed at the National Industry and Information Technology Work Conference: “Strive to achieve 5G network coverage in all prefecture-level cities in the country by the end of 2020.” With the gradual laying of 5G base stations in surrounding cities, this will undoubtedly further promote the commercialization of 5G. pace. The large-scale commercial use of 5G in 2020 will bring huge market dividends. In the smartphone market, Huawei 5G mobile phones can achieve small goals as long as they can maintain the market impact of last year.
According to Canalys data, the overall shipments in the Chinese market still declined slightly year-on-year, but there has been a slight increase in Q3. In the quarter, Huawei (including Honor) achieved a high growth of 66%, shipping 41.5 million units, and the domestic market share exceeded 40%. This upward trend has a good gain for Huawei’s competition in the 5G era.
The second variable: the domestic 5G mobile phone war will drive the enthusiasm for purchasing
The curtain of the 5G replacement wave has already kicked off in advance. At the end of 2019, Huawei, Xiaomi, and OV have successively released a series of 5G flagship mobile phones.
For users living in front-line cities where 5G base stations have been built, it is already early for most people to experience the 5G era.
So far, Huawei (Honor) has launched 5 5G models, which means that the development cost of subsequent 5G mobile phones will be greatly reduced, and more time and energy can be freed up for systems, screens, lenses, product processes, molds, etc. Polishing to further expand product differentiation.
According to the data in the report released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in November 2019, the overall domestic mobile phone market shipped 34.842 million units, of which 5G mobile phone shipments reached 5.074 million units. 5G mobile phone shipments in November increased by 103.46% month-on-month.
The cumulative shipments of 5G mobile phones from 72,000 units in July to November reached 8.355 million units. The shipments of 5G mobile phones have experienced explosive growth, far exceeding the industry’s expectations.
At present, the price of 5G mobile phones has begun to drop within 2,000 yuan. For example, the Redmi K30 5G version 8+128g released by Xiaomi is only 2,599 yuan, and then the first 5G smartphone X50 8+128g released by realme is only 2,499 yuan, which keeps pulling down. The price threshold of 5G smartphones, the competition in the 5G smartphone market has entered a warm-up stage.
In 2019, as the first year of commercial use of 5G networks, leaders such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and OV took the lead in launching 5G cards and launched a series of 5G smartphones. Under the vigorous promotion of advertisements, more and more consumers will be affected. Consider choosing to buy a 5G smartphone. When the entire mobile phone consumption forms a “5G collective consciousness”, whether the mobile phone supports 5G will become an important trade-off factor for consumers to purchase new phones.
With the increase in the coverage of 5G base station construction, operators will inevitably increase the speed and reduce fees on 5G packages in the future. As a rational party, most consumers will also actively embrace “affordable” 5G mobile phones and packages. Putting aside the “early adopters” mentality, 5G smartphones are “a little more” than 4G mobile phones, which is an advantage, and the price competition will be more intense.
As the “originator” iPhone of smartphones, it is still a suspense whether Apple will release 5G mobile phones at the new product launch in 2020. If Apple can join the melee, it will further consolidate the trend of 5G mobile phones, and 5G will become the standard configuration of mainstream flagship phones. When the whole market is full of confidence in 5G, it will undoubtedly stimulate the vitality and enthusiasm of the entire mobile phone market.
At the same time, various mobile phone manufacturers are currently opening more and more offline brick-and-mortar stores by integrating existing resources. Brands such as Huawei (Honor), Xiaomi, OV, Suning Tesco, etc. Stores will bring positive factors to promoting the penetration of 5G to the whole society of consumer groups.
Taking Huawei as an example, facing the vast space of the offline market, by the end of 2019, it has opened nearly 2,500 service stores, nearly 1,500 city-level experience stores, and nearly 3,000 county-level experience stores. Huawei (Honor) uses multiple online e-commerce platforms + offline physical stores + overseas markets. The annual global shipment of Mate and P series flagship smartphones exceeded 44 million units, and consumers are more and more willing to spend more money on mobile phones, which is good news for the arrival of 5G mobile phones.
The whole society is inclined to the 5G era, which brings a second benefit to Huawei’s small goal of 100 million units.
The third variable: Huawei 5G mobile phone matrix forming covers high, medium and low
So far, Huawei (Honor) in the high-end field of 5G mobile phones includes: Mate20 X, Mate30, Mate30 Pro and Mate30 RS; in the mid-range field of 5G mobile phones: Honor V30 and V30 Pro and nova6. Huawei (Honor) has basically formed a high-end layout.
With the price war of 5G mobile phone manufacturers, the price threshold of 5G mobile phones this year will gradually be lowered to below 2,000 yuan. In 2020, once the 5G mobile phone of Huawei (Honor) 5G mobile phone under 2000 yuan is launched, it will form a full matrix of high, medium and low-end coverage.
Samsung is affected by the explosion and fire accident caused by the battery defect of the Galaxy Note7, which has led to a decline in users’ acceptance of Samsung in recent years. At present, Samsung’s influence in the Chinese market is not as strong as before. Although the product matrix is also promoted at the same time as the high, middle and low end, it is difficult to effectively block Huawei.
The iPhone, as the “mobile phone vane”, mainly focuses on the high-end market. The price of the 5G Model released in 2020 may start at 10,000+. After all, Cook has been working hard to explore the iPhone’s pricing range. At present, brands such as OV mainly focus on the high-end and high-end mobile phone market. Xiaomi is focusing on the high-end market. At present, it only has a good influence in the low-end and mid-end market. Huawei is the only one that can achieve an all-round layout of high-end, high-end and low-end products.
A series of products such as Mate, nova, and Honor have been well recognized by consumers and have established a good reputation in the field of mobile phones.
Aside from Huawei’s 5G R&D and chip construction, the innovation in different types of screens such as special-shaped screens and waterfall screens and zoom lenses has already opened a certain gap with similar products.
In recent years, Huawei’s high investment in mobile phone research and development has achieved many technological breakthroughs, coupled with excellent user experience, bringing a third benefit to Huawei’s small goal of 100 million units.
In 2020, Huawei’s 5G mobile phone sales will reach 100 million. Some people may say that this is a “stupid dream”.
Yu Chengdong said in the “2020 New Year Letter to All Employees of Huawei’s Consumer Business”, “In 2019, the consumer business maintained rapid growth and exceeded the business goals set at the beginning of the year! It is expected that Huawei’s annual shipment of smartphones will exceed 240 million units. 2nd in the world.”
In 2019 alone, Huawei’s smartphone shipments will be 240 million units, so according to Tosaka Masaichi’s estimated 100 million units, it is still very possible to achieve.
In 2019, major mobile phone manufacturers are still releasing 4G mobile phones. In 2020, the proportion of 5G mobile phone models will definitely exceed half. This factor will also force consumers to choose 5G mobile phones. Therefore, from the perspective of these three variables, Huawei’s small target of 100 million 5G mobile phones in 2020 may not be just an “empty talk”.