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Taiwan’s Yushan Science and Technology Association’s 20th Anniversary Celebration Conference and Forum was held at the Taipei International Convention Center on the 26th. Leaders of the technology industry gathered together. Due to the recent news of the semiconductor industry, including demand, price increases, etc., are the focus of the on-site media. The chairman of Power Semiconductor Corporation Huang Chongren said in a post-meeting interview that the demand for vehicles is difficult to calculate and will definitely be missing. (2022) The annual price will continue to increase to a reasonable price.
Recently, many foreign investors have issued reports that the semiconductor boom is about to reach its peak, and there will be some pressure in the fourth quarter. In this regard, Huang Chongren believes that although it is not clear when the semiconductor boom will reach its peak, it is certain that automobiles (referring to automotive electronics) will remain in short supply. He further explained that under the trends of autonomous driving, electric vehicles, AI, 5G, energy saving, carbon reduction, automation, etc., cars need more and more software and chips, and no one properly calculates the required capacity, and it is also difficult. Figure it out.
Huang Chongren said that, in fact, the chip gaps in general automobiles have been filled, but Chinese factories are desperately acquiring chips in the process. The reason is currently unknown, but the so-called chip gaps are mainly in higher-end products such as electric vehicles and AI. For car models, these demands are not originally within the supply chain or forecast range of semiconductor supply factories.
A few other cars cannot be delivered, and the ones that are missing are mainly relatively low-end, general chips. Huang Chongren said that such chips “have no capacity in the first place.” Therefore, even if U.S. President Biden hurriedly convened multiple White House meetings, he could not solve the related problems. In the future, facing the goal of 2050 cars with zero carbon emissions, ” This is the beginning of another demand. Carbon reduction is a very serious problem for industrial supply.”
Huang Chongren pointed out that the current shortage is unbalanced. Although mobile phones, NBs, and Displays have come down, there are still other things that are out of stock, especially for automotive electronics. It is more difficult to estimate the actual demand. It seems that the first to face the shortage is the power management IC. It can also be said that the real increase in demand is about to begin now.
As far as the current industry ecology is concerned, Huang Chongren pointed out that AI, self-driving systems and other equipment require chip supply, but the automotive industry has never communicated with the semiconductor industry how much it needs. The current situation is that “the most expensive ones are available. The problem is There is no cheap chip.” For example, the 40nm chip used for power control, “not even the mainland will do this.” Everyone is rushing to make chips below 28nm. If you want to set up a factory for this demand, it will be a lot of money. Big investment.
When asked if prices will continue to increase next year, Huang Chongren replied: “Of course!” He believes that the amount of investment in semiconductor manufacturing and the risk are so high, but the margin is less than IC design. This is a very ridiculous thing. Hope Manufacturing can get reasonable prices.
Second-tier wafer foundries determine price increases in Q1 next year
Although the semiconductor industry is affected by long and short materials and the kinetic energy of some terminal products to pull goods, the production capacity of foundry is still in short supply. TSMC’s recent law conference has released the outlook for continued tight production capacity next year. UMC, Power Semiconductor Manufacturing, World Advanced, etc. Recently, I have negotiated with the client about the foundry price in the first quarter of next year, and the price will continue to increase. Some popular processes will increase the price by more than 10%. It is obvious that the foundry will be off-season in the first quarter of next year.
TSMC made it clear at the law conference a few days ago that the client will continue the high inventory level of chips, and the continued growth of semiconductors is expected to be driven by 5G/HPC applications. With the increase in chip content of related products, TSMC’s technology Leading, operations will be able to grow substantially, and it is estimated that next year’s production capacity will continue to be tight, and customers will not only be able to accept price increases, but are also willing to take prepayments.
TSMC has announced to its customers that the price of mature processes will increase by 20% at the end of August, and the price of advanced processes below 7nm will increase by about 8%. This price increase strategy will continue next year. Foundry factories such as UMC, Power Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd., and Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. have recently negotiated with customers about foundry prices in the first quarter of next year. They have also followed up with TSMC’s price increase, which is estimated to continue to increase by 8%-10%. More than 10%.
The industry pointed out that the production chain of personal computers, smart phones, etc., due to long and short materials, has slowed down shipments, but the current foundry capacity is still in short supply, including driver ICs, power management ICs, power semiconductors, image sensors, radio frequency ICs, and micro-controllers. Demand for MCUs and other devices is still strong, and the output time is also lengthened. Not only do customers have no room for bargaining, but they dare not cut orders at will. As long as the order volume is reduced, the production capacity will soon be replaced by other customers.
UMC is expected to hold a legal meeting on the 27th and announce its third-quarter financial report. In the third quarter, consolidated revenue reached 55.907 billion yuan, a record high in a single quarter. The industry is expected to make bright profits, but foreign capital sells more than UMC every day. A total of more than 80,000 copies were sold in 5 trading days, and the stock price also fell below the 60 yuan barrier and closed at 58.3 yuan yesterday.
In addition, Motorola is also bearish on Power Semiconductor Manufacturing, believing that revenue and profit in the fourth quarter will peak, and prices will lose its pricing advantage next year. However, from the perspective of the continued price increase of Power Semiconductor Manufacturing in the coming years, it seems like a face-off. foreign investment.