Sina Technology News On the morning of January 12, the “2020 Technology Billboard” jointly sponsored by Sina Finance Client and Sina Technology opened today. The theme of this year’s event is “Regrowth of Everything”. Wu Hequan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said in his keynote speech that the epidemic in 2020 has accelerated 5G and the demand for 5G. This year, the 5G positioning accuracy will be improved to 0.3 meters, and the positioning capability will be used in autonomous driving, dock loading and unloading, and indoor positioning. get better applications.
Wu Hequan said that China’s 5G laboratory was officially launched for commercial use on October 31, 2019, but the real scale of commercial network construction will still be in 2020. In 2020, we conquered the new crown epidemic. The epidemic has accelerated the demand for 5G. China’s new infrastructure strategy has accelerated the construction of 5G. China’s 5G construction has directly entered the stage of independent networking.
He said that by the end of last year, China had newly added 580,000 5G base stations, reaching a total of 718,000, and the number of 5G connections exceeded 200 million, ranking first in the world.
“5G realizes the seamless integration of a new generation of information technology,” said Wu Hequan, from network interconnection to data interconnection and value interconnection; from the Internet of Things to the Internet of Intelligence, to the Internet of Information, from the Internet of Everything to the Internet of Everything, to the Internet of Everything.
In his view, although 5G is a wireless technology, its high bandwidth, low latency, large connection, and high reliability make it possible to integrate new generation information such as cloud computing, Internet of Things, big data, artificial intelligence, blockchain and industrial Internet. The seamless integration of technology has opened up the whole process of data collection, transmission, storage, processing, analysis, and decision-making, and played the role of data as a factor of production.
“Another key performance of 5G is low latency, which can achieve 0.5 milliseconds in high-reliability application environments and scenarios.” Wu Hequan said, therefore, the requirements of the Internet of Vehicles, the L4 stage requires 1 to 10 milliseconds, and the UHV power grid requires Below 3 milliseconds, these are all hoped to be supported by the low latency of 5G.
In addition, 5G’s high bandwidth and low latency enable real-time remote live broadcast of high-definition video, and 5G supports ultra-clear and high-speed live video and 3D video applications. 5G itself can synchronize multiple cameras on the stadium, and transmit the signals of multiple cameras to the outside at the same time, so that the audience outside the stadium can watch the video from a certain angle as the audience inside the stadium.
“Of course, more applications are in industry. 5G connects all aspects of industrial production and realizes the full activation of data.” In Wu Hequan’s view, remote driving, automatic parking, UHV power grids and some highly reliable Machining. Some of these 5G performances may be applied in 2020, but most of them have not really reflected the key performance of 5G in applications. We believe that the excellent performance of 5G will create a new format of digital and intelligent transformation of “two industrializations”, and will promote new content of “two industrializations” informatization and industrialization integration.
This year is the eighth year of Sina’s “Technology Billboard”, and you are welcome to continue to pay attention. Together with Wu Hequan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, Sun Jie, CEO of Ctrip Group, President of Huawei’s Consumer BG Software Department, and Liu Erhai, the founding and managing partner of Joy Capital, they reviewed the changes and looked forward to the new life.
The following is the full text of the speech:
Wu Hequan: Distinguished leaders and guests:
Hello everyone! I am very happy to participate in the 2020 Technology Billboard hosted by Sina Technology. The title of my presentation is “5G in 2020 and Outlook”.
China’s 5G laboratory was officially launched for commercial use on October 31, 2019, but the real scale of commercial network construction will still be in 2020. In 2020, we conquered the new crown epidemic, which has accelerated the demand for 5G, and China’s new infrastructure strategy has accelerated the construction of 5G. Last year, China’s 5G construction directly entered the stage of independent networking. By the end of last year, China had newly added 580,000 5G base stations, reaching a total of 718,000, and the number of 5G connections exceeded 200 million, ranking first in the world. According to GSMA forecast, by the end of 2020, China’s 5G will account for 85% of the world’s 5G connections. The graph on the right shows the number of 5G connections in the world, from 2020 to 2025, the entire forecasted development process. The red is China, which shows that China’s 5G occupies a pivotal position in the global 5G.
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that in 2021, China will build another 600,000 5G base stations. 5G realizes the seamless integration of a new generation of information technology. We have gone through the first generation of mobile communication, which is analog, and a cell relies on different frequencies to distinguish users. 2G represented by GSM is digital and differentiates users by time. 3G is all CDMA, and users are distinguished by different code channels. 4G combines multiple factors of frequency, time, and code channel to increase the peak rate to 100M. The 5G multiple access method is the evolution of 4G. Of course, 5G will increase the peak rate to 20G. But there is still 6G in the future.
5G mainly relies on wireless technology, which is an ultra-dense networking, making the cells more dense, large-scale antennas, integrating the factors of space division multiplexing, full spectrum access, increasing the use of more frequencies, and physical Layer improvements. This enables 5G to achieve enhanced mobile broadband, high reliability and low latency, and wide coverage and large connections. In fact, in addition to wireless technology, 5G also highlights cloudification, virtualization, and network slicing in network technology. Compared with 4G, 5G has 1 to 2 orders of magnitude improvement in many performances. Although 5G is a wireless technology, its high bandwidth, low latency, large connection, and high reliability seamlessly integrate cloud computing, Internet of Things, big data, artificial intelligence, blockchain, and industrial Internet and other new generation information technologies. , opening up the whole process of data collection, transmission, storage, processing, analysis, and decision-making, and playing the role of data as a factor of production.
5G helps the cloud and network side-end and collaborative data processing. With the help of 5G transmission, the computing of the terminal can be migrated to the cloud-end, and the terminal does not need to download the core software, which reduces the cost of the terminal, and is plug-and-play. Moreover, the collaboration of cloud-side-end data will reduce latency and improve user experience. For example, for a video like VR, if only the mobile phone is used for rendering, the entire mobile phone will heat up, and the user experience will be poor and it will freeze. At present, mobile phones cooperate with edge computing and cloud computing. The mobile phone is responsible for the foreground and fast-changing interactions. AI computing is responsible for the background and the cloud is responsible for the entire comprehensive processing. As we can see from the following small video, the left picture is rendered by the mobile phone. The effect, it functions 5 to 7 frames per second, changes relatively slowly. The right picture is the cloud-side-end collaboration, which can achieve 58 to 60 frames per second, and the user experience is well improved. This kind of application is not only for consumption, but also requires cloud-side-end collaboration in scenarios such as the Industrial Internet and the Internet of Vehicles. According to IDC’s forecast, more than 50% of data will be processed at the edge in the future, and 5G will also promote the development of the Internet of Things to an intelligent network with large broadband connections.
In 2016, the MBIOT narrowband IoT standard passed internationally, which can support channels of 20K bits and 250K bits per second, but this is narrowband. While a large number of IoT applications require broadband, 5G can now achieve a 100Mbit-per-second IoT channel, and 5G can also support the networking of 1 million sensors per square kilometer. Going a step further, we can embed IoT chips and IoT operating systems into IoT terminals, so that AI and IoT can be combined to become AIoT. We call it the Internet of Things. It is also possible to embed the blockchain into the Internet of Things, so that the Internet of Things access authentication, data encryption and authorization security are better guaranteed.
Through the 5G connection, we can not only surf the Internet, go to the cloud, but also go to the chain. From network interconnection to data interconnection, and value interconnection; from the Internet of Things to the Internet of Intelligence, to the Internet of Information, from the Internet of Everything to the Internet of Everything, to the Internet of Everything.
5G has opened the era of ultra-high-definition video. Our high-definition video is 2K now, and we will develop to 4K and 8K in the future. Compared with 8K and 2K, not only the resolution is increased by 16 times, but the frame is also increased from 25 frames per second to 120 frames per second, and the number of bits per pixel is increased from 8 bits to 16 bits, and the viewing width and field of view are also greatly increased. The yellow “triangle” on the PPT shows the field of view of the original high-definition video, and the “black triangle” is the field of view of the 8K video, which is close to the laser TV.
The high bandwidth and low latency of 5G enable real-time remote live broadcast of high-definition video, and 5G supports the application of ultra-clear and high-speed live video and 3D video. 5G itself can synchronize the cameras of multiple cameras on the stadium, and transmit the signals of multiple cameras to the outside at the same time, so that the audience outside the stadium can watch the video from a certain angle as the audience inside the stadium. Of course, the videos of these multiple cameras can also be re-synthesized into a 360-degree video in the background. The high movement speed of 5G is especially suitable for high-speed sports. For example, in the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, we will install 5G cameras on the helmets and sleds of alpine skiers. The audience outside the stadium can feel the same height, difficulty, and difficulty as the athletes. Temperature, speed, the movement speed of alpine skiing is 250 kilometers per hour, and 3D video can have more application scenarios because of 5G. Now 3D usually reduces the resolution by half, half for the left eye and half for the right eye. Therefore, only with 8K video, 3D video can get a definition similar to 4K, or even a little better than 4K, while the resolution of ordinary 2K video is reduced by half, and the effect is reduced.
5G also activates the application of virtual reality and augmented reality. For example, in the Nanchang Locomotive Depot of the National Railway, the drivers of the high-speed railway can wear 5G and VR helmet glasses to simulate the scenarios they may face during the driving of the high-speed railway to train the drivers. Wearing glasses using 5G+AR/VR, we can realize the quality inspection of machine vision and simulate teaching. In the field of consumption, 5G+VR can also enable us to see the virtual scene of ourselves wearing the selected clothes on our mobile phones when shopping on e-commerce platforms.
Of course, more applications of 5G are in industry. 5G connects all aspects of industrial production and realizes the full activation of data. Several small videos displayed on the PPT, including mathematical modeling, collaborative design, intelligent manufacturing, machine vision, digital egg generation, supply chain management, market management, but the key performance of 5G has not yet fully developed and utilized it, for example Ultra-broadband, now China Telecom and China Unicom jointly build a network, which can have 200M carriers, which together can support a peak rate of 2.7Gbps. In the future, using the millimeter wave frequency band, the peak rate can also reach 20 G. What can this achieve? It can realize the use of laser video to scan machine parts in the production process, generate an actual 3D Model, and then transmit it to the background through 5G, and compare it with the pre-stored theoretical 3D model, which can accurately detect the quality of the product.
As mentioned above, 5G+AR/VR glasses can well realize the quality detection of machine vision products.
Another key performance of 5G is low latency, which can achieve 0.5 milliseconds in highly reliable application environments and scenarios.
In addition to 5G+VR to train high-speed rail drivers, in our industry, the motor and the PLC are merged into a logic controller, and its delay requirement needs to be lower than 0.25 milliseconds. For the requirements of the Internet of Vehicles, the L4 stage needs 1 to 10 milliseconds . The UHV grid requires less than 3 milliseconds. These all hope that the low latency of 5G can be supported.
Another capability of 5G is positioning. For 80% of the terminals, the accuracy of horizontal outdoor positioning is about 10 meters. The vertical accuracy of indoor positioning is 3 meters, and the vertical accuracy is equivalent to our current satellite navigation positioning. The indoor positioning accuracy is better than 3 meters both vertically and horizontally, and now satellite navigation cannot achieve indoor positioning.
In the new year, the 5G standard will also evolve to L17, and its positioning accuracy will be further improved to 0.3 meters. This positioning capability has good applications in autonomous driving, dock loading and unloading, and indoor positioning.
Another feature of 5G is reliability. Its high reliability index can be better than 99.9999%, mainly in what circumstances? Remote driving, automatic parking, UHV power grid and some highly reliable machining. Some of these 5G performances may have some applications in 2020, but most of them have not really reflected these 5G key performances in applications. We believe that the excellent performance of 5G will create a new format of digital and intelligent transformation of “two industrializations”, and will promote new content of “two industrializations” informatization and industrialization integration.
5G will create a platform for innovative formats
We say that 2G was commercialized globally in 1991 and in China in 1994. 2G’s digital terminal capabilities have brought up SMS, mobile QQ, and Alipay. 3G started in 2001 globally and in 2007 in China. The data transmission capability of 3G gave birth to smartphones, mobile e-commerce, Weibo, O2O and WeChat. These applications were not thought of when 3G started. 4G global started in 2010, and China started in 2013. The broadband capability of 4G has brought scanning code payment, shared bicycles, online car-hailing, shared e-commerce, mobile intelligent search, and short videos. These applications are only after the emergence of 4G.
5G, China will launch 5G commercialization in 2019 at the same time as developed countries around the world. 5G’s cloud intelligent integration capabilities, we now foresee that 5G will bring ultra-clear video, virtual reality, intelligent networking, industrial Internet, and Internet of Vehicles. But in fact, the application of 5G in the future is far from limited to this. Why? According to the history of mobile communication development, the new format of mobile communication is born after the network capability is possessed, and 5G will definitely produce new applications that have not yet been imagined.
The potential of 5G has yet to be realized, and its application in vertical industries will inspire more and larger-scale new formats.
Some consulting companies predict that in 2035, 5G will increase the global output by 13 trillion US dollars, and the corresponding GDP will increase by 7%. Dollar.
Not only 5G, but also artificial intelligence will be more widely used because of 5G. McKinsey once predicted that artificial intelligence will increase global GDP by 1.2 percentage points in 2035, corresponding to an increase of 13 trillion US dollars in economic output. Accenture predicts that AI will increase global profit margins by 38% by 2035, equivalent to an economic growth of $14 trillion.
We see the green part in the lower right picture of the PPT, which represents the growth of GDP in each country, without considering artificial intelligence. The blue part is the contribution of artificial intelligence attached. Likewise, Accenture predicts that the Industrial Internet could bring economic growth of $14.2 trillion to the global economy by 2030.
The combination of 5G, artificial intelligence and the industrial Internet will bring in US$13 trillion, US$13 trillion, and US$14 trillion respectively. Although some correspond to 2035, some also correspond to economic output and GDP. From a conservative point of view, they are all calculated to 2035, and GDP is also counted as economic growth. 5G, artificial intelligence, and industrial Internet will increase the contribution of the global economy by 40% in 2035. trillions of dollars.
China’s Academy of Information and Communications Technology also has a prediction for the development of the digital economy. In 2019, the direct contribution of information technology is equivalent to 7.2% of the GDP of digital industrialization, and the added value brought by the application of information technology in traditional industries is equivalent to the digital part of the industry, which is 29%. Adding the two together, it reached 36.2% in 2019, which means that it accounts for more than one-third of GDP. The commercial use of 5G now marks another critical period in our country’s Internet development. China’s Internet has gone through 26 years and has experienced four major trials. One was the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000. The second time was the SARS outbreak in 2003. The third time was the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008. The fourth time is the outbreak of the new crown epidemic. Coupled with the decoupling of de-globalization, which targets Chinese Internet technology companies, this is another severe test for our country. There are always Internet companies that will be washed away by the waves or miss development opportunities before the arrival of the new era. But each time also heralds a new opportunity, and a new era of networking begins after the crisis. Now the commercial use of 5G will have a far-reaching impact than the arrival of the mobile Internet. Only companies that keenly grasp the trend and accelerate innovation-driven and business transformation can open up new blue oceans. Our country’s 1.4 billion people are the ballast of China’s Internet ships. The new pattern of China’s high-quality development will open up more space for the development of the Internet. The commercial use of 5G shows a new golden age of Internet development, and it is also a critical period for the digital transformation of traditional enterprises.
Finally, the commercial use of 5G is undoubtedly a major event in the development of global technology and industry in 2020. China’s 5G deployment is ahead of the world. As a link for the seamless integration of new-generation information technologies, 5G opens up the entire process of data collection, transmission, analysis, and decision-making, strengthens the role of data as a factor of production, and becomes the engine of digital industrialization and industrial digitization.
5G has opened another critical period for the development of the Internet. At present, the network coverage of 5G in our country needs to be expanded. The content development and industrial ecology supporting 5G urgently need to be improved. The new kinetic energy value in the social and economic fields has not yet been fully realized.
The new infrastructure will accelerate the deployment of 5G networks and open up a larger application space. The prospect of 5G development is broad, but continuous innovation is required to realize it.
thank you all!
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